Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Was the assassin's bullet fired tonight?

The Liberal Democrats in Wales rejecting to do deals with either Labour or Plaid and the Tories, has left Wales in political limbo. Will we see a Lab-Plaid informal coalition (or formal with any luck?) Or will Labour trot on in a minority government for a while, until something better for Wales can be sorted out (Lab-Lib, Plaid-Lab or other, since a minority government is not good for Wales) ? Or will Plaid and Tories try and go it alone with the sort of Trish Law (not at all likely, and electoral suicide for Plaid and Trish.)

However you have to wonder if tonight was the firing of the assassin's bullet at Mike German in the Liberal Democrats, otherwise why else would they want to turn down a deal with both Labour and Plaid+Tories? It makes little sense to me, since either way they would have seen Liberal Democrat policies on the table and put into action, and Liberal Democratic ministers around the cabinet table.

The argument about the Welsh people not wanting Labour nor the Tories, nor Plaid in government is mute, because the Welsh people want a government and a majority of them did vote for a majority government, be it Plaid-Lab, Lib-Lab, Rainbow or other. They do not want a minority Labour government, not even Labour members want that (at least ones with any sense), and they definitely do not want to see another election in a few weeks time, they would disastrous for the three main political parties (Labour, Plaid, Tories) and especially the Lib Dems (don't think they deserve to be called a main party after this), as well as devolution and Wales as a whole, it could even set back a referendum on further law making powers for a long time, and that would be a very Bad thing, since Wales needs more powers.

I feel this was internal Liberal Democrat politics, and if it is, the Welsh voters should not and hopefully will not forgive the Liberal Democrats too easy, and their reputation will be knocked for six. The Lib Dems will be damaged for this, but I fear the damage will leak over to all the other parties, especially Labour and Plaid Cymru.

This could be the biggest disaster to hit devolution, and it is now up to Labour and Plaid Cymru to sort something out fast and come to a face saving compromise for Labour, for Plaid and for Wales and Welsh devolution, or otherwise Wales will become a massive laughing stock and public opinion on devolution will drop like a stone, and that is something I don't think anyone in Welsh politics wants.

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